Unemployment Up,Durable Good Orders Down,Profits Down, But ... Home Prices Up So ... ?

Yes, one bit of good news — good news especially for huge property owners — and that is sufficient for economists, politicians, journalists and pundits to start hailing the "trough". The economy has bottomed out.

One month, one statistic, and the sunlit uplands are hailed:

• The New York Times. 3-Year Descent in Home Prices Appears at End. "a possible signal that the market has bottomed". The Times apparently thought better of this after the fact and changed the online headline to "Recovery Signs in Housing Market Stir Some Hope"

• WNYC. Housing Price Low Mark. "the market may have hit bottom"

By contrast, here is some of the news that evidently can be ignored when asking how the economy is doing:

• 584,000 Americans filed first-time claims for unemployment benefits last week. This was instantly dismissed as a seasonal anomaly; nevermind that, even if anomalous, it proves that unemployment is still climbing rapidly. The total number of people collecting benefits decreased — probably because people are reaching the end of the alloted time for collecting.

• There remains near-universal agreement that unemployment will exceed 10% nationally.

• Durable goods orders are down. Unless you exclude automobiles and aircraft, in which case they're up. When data element x or y upsets the picture you are trying to paint, come up with an ad hoc reason to exclude that data.

• Sony posts a loss of $390.5 million

• Profits down 66% for quarter at Exxon Mobil

• Volkswagen 6-month profit down 81%